Best Ball Touchdown Regression: How Touchdown Regression Affects Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
Why touchdowns are volatile: touchdowns in the NFL are partly skill-dependent (players who occupy red zone roles score more touchdowns) and partly luck-dependent (a catch at the 3-yard line versus the 1-yard line is the difference between zero and 6 points). Players who scored touchdowns on high conversion percentages of their red zone opportunities in one season tend to score at lower rates in the next season. This is called touchdown regression.
Touchdown Regression Quick Reference
| Regression scenario | What it signals | Best ball action | Mistake to avoid |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR scored 12+ TDs on 80 targets (15%+ TD rate) | Over-scorer — unsustainably high TD/target conversion | Fade at ADP; the price reflects repeating 12 TDs, which is unlikely | Drafting a 12-TD WR at the ADP that bakes in another 12 TDs — the ADP is inflated by the prior-season luck |
| WR scored 5 TDs on 28 red zone targets (18% conversion) | Under-scorer — below-expected conversion rate | Buy — positive TD regression likely; ADP may not reflect upside | Ignoring under-scorers because their prior-season TD total looks low — the RZ opportunity is the real signal |
| RB had 20 red zone carries, scored 12 TDs (60% conversion) | Over-scorer — red zone conversion for RBs averages 30–40% | Fade at inflated ADP | Assuming workhorse RBs sustain 60% red zone conversion — they revert to 35–40% baseline the next season |
| RB had 20 red zone carries, scored 5 TDs (25% conversion) | Under-scorer — below-average conversion for their opportunity volume | Buy — positive regression likely; upcoming TDs are underpriced | Selling a red-zone RB after a low-TD season — the opportunity is the asset; the TDs will come |
| Early-down TD stack (2 TDs on same drive happen to one player) | Luck-driven clustering — drives don’t systematically produce the same scorer | No predictive value — discount any TD total based on clustered single-game performances | Modeling next year’s TD total on a week where a player scored 3 TDs in one game — single-game TD spikes are extreme noise |
| ADP overpriced due to prior-year TD total | Market anchors to prior-year TDs — even when regression is predictable | Find the fade: compare red zone opportunity rate to touchdown rate; if the rate is unsustainable, the ADP is overpriced | Trusting ADP as a perfect market — ADP systematically overpays for prior-year TD luck |
Identifying Over-Scorers vs. Under-Scorers
Red zone opportunity share. The best predictor of touchdown volume is red zone opportunity share — what percentage of a team’s red zone passes went to a specific receiver, or what percentage of a team’s red zone carries went to a specific RB. A player who scored 14 touchdowns but had only 18 red zone opportunities was scoring on 77% of their opportunities — an unsustainably high rate that will regress. A player who scored 5 touchdowns on 28 red zone opportunities (18% rate) is probably a touchdown underperformer relative to their opportunity.
The draft price problem. Best ball ADP (average draft position) incorporates last year’s touchdown totals heavily because many drafters anchor to prior-season performance. An over-scorer who totaled 12 TDs last season is often drafted at a price that bakes in a repeat performance. Identifying these over-scorers and avoiding them at inflated prices while targeting under-scorers who should see positive touchdown regression is a reliable best ball edge.
Applying Regression in Best Ball Drafts
Who to avoid. Players who scored touchdowns on a high percentage of their red zone looks (relative to position averages) are over-scorer candidates. The position average for red zone conversion rates varies by position — for WRs in the end zone, a rate above 50–60% for a single season is likely to regress.
Who to target. Players with high red zone opportunity volume who scored fewer touchdowns than expected are positive regression candidates. These players often carry ADP prices that do not reflect their likely future touchdown upside.
For how touchdown regression fits into overall best ball draft preparation, see: Best Ball Draft Strategy: How to Build a Winning Best Ball Fantasy Football Roster.