How dynasty trade values are calculated
Most trade calculators hand you a number with no explanation. Here is the model our values are built on — so you can check our work, argue with it, and trust it.
Sample values. These numbers are illustrative while the live weekly board is being wired in. The model and the format multipliers are real — the underlying projections are not final yet, so use this to learn the tool, not to settle an argument.
The core idea: production above replacement
A player is only worth the fantasy points they score beyond a freely available replacementat their position — the last reliable starter or first waiver-wire option. A 15 points-per-game tight end is far more valuable than a 15 points-per-game running back, because the replacement tight end scores much less than the replacement running back. We value the gap, not the raw total. This is why scarce positions command a premium.
The age curve: dynasty's biggest lever
Redraft cares about this season; dynasty prices a player's whole remaining career. Every future season is projected through a position-specific age curve, because decline looks very different by position:
- Running backs peak early (~24) and fall off a cliff after ~27.
- Wide receivers peak ~26 and decline gently, often useful into their thirties.
- Quarterbacks age slowest and stay startable deep into their thirties.
- Tight ends develop late and decline gradually.
Decline is convex — it accelerates with age, so an older player's remaining window shrinks faster each year rather than fading in a straight line. That accelerating cliff is why an aging star is worth a fraction of their redraft value in dynasty.
Discounting the future
A fantasy point four years from now is worth less than a point next season — future production is less certain and most managers value winning now. We discount each future season before adding it up, so proven near-term production is weighted ahead of speculative long-term upside.
Rookie picks: valued as option value
A rookie pick is a lottery ticket on a future player. Most picks miss, so a pick's averageoutcome sits below a startable player — yet the pick is still valuable because of thechance of a hit. We price that right-tail option value directly (an early first is close to a young starter; a fourth is a deep dart), then discount future picks more steeply for the extra year of uncertainty and the unknown landing spot.
Format effects are calibrated multipliers
Toggling a format applies a multiplier to the affected assets. We are telling you the exact numbers rather than implying something more sophisticated is happening underneath:
- Superflex lets you start a quarterback in the flex, which lowers the QB replacement level. We approximate that effect with a tiered multiplier — 1.7×for a streamer, 1.9× for a mid-tier starter, 2.15× for an elite arm — so the biggest absolute gain still lands on the quarterbacks you never bench. Rookie first-round picks gain 18% and later picks 10%, because a pick can become a quarterback.
- TE-premium adds 35% to every tight end. This is a flat bump, not a per-player recalculation from target volume: a high-target tight end gains more in absolute terms because he starts from a larger base, but the rate itself does not vary.
These coefficients are a calibration, not a projection engine. They are pinned to the code by a test, so if a multiplier changes, this page has to change with it.
Transparency & current status
This methodology is the model our valuation engine implements. Player and pick values are a calibrated baseline while we finish wiring live weekly projections into it; every tool shows a“sample values” badge so you always know which you are looking at. The method above does not change with the data — only the projections that feed it do. Found something you'd model differently? That's the point of showing our work — tell us.
Use the model without getting lost in theory
Jump straight to theplayer value databaseorpick value databaseif you want to inspect the outputs first. Then use theDynasty Trading Systemandundervalued-player guideto turn the numbers into actual roster decisions.