Best Ball Targets Per Game: How to Use Target Data to Build a Better Best Ball Roster
Targets per game is the number of times a receiver is thrown to, divided by games played. It is a cleaner measure of a player’s role in the passing game than receptions alone — because targets represent opportunity, not just successful plays. In best ball, identifying players who see consistent 7+ targets per game separates reliable weekly contributors from lottery tickets.
Targets Per Game Quick Reference
| Target level | Fantasy floor | Fantasy ceiling | Best ball role | Draft tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9+ targets per game | High — consistent 12–18 point weeks even without TDs | Very high — 9-target games with TDs reach 28–35 points | Core starter every week; auto-lineup anchor | Rounds 1–5 in most best ball formats |
| 7–8 targets per game | Moderate-high — reliable but dependent on catch efficiency and depth | High — ceiling weeks come regularly with 7–8 looks per game | Core starter most weeks; strong FLEX | Rounds 4–8 |
| 5–6 targets per game | Moderate — some weeks floor is 8 points; consistent enough for FLEX consideration | Moderate-high — ceiling weeks are possible but require TD to reach 20+ | Streaming starter; FLEX on good weeks | Rounds 8–13 |
| 3–4 targets per game | Low — most weeks produce 6–10 points without exceptional efficiency | Moderate — boom weeks require big play (TD + 60-yard catch) from limited volume | Boom-or-bust late depth; lottery in best ball | Rounds 14–18 |
| Below 3 targets per game | Very low — not a reliable weekly contributor | Low-moderate — relies on explosive plays to produce; high bust rate | Late-round flier; never a core piece | Rounds 18–20 or undrafted |
| Target leader in new role after departure of team’s WR1 | Projected high — role transferable; often underpriced while ADP catches up | Very high — inheriting full target share from a prior WR1 is a season-changing opportunity | Strong buy at any round before ADP reprices | Buy the day the situation becomes clear |
Why Targets Matter in Best Ball
Targets predict future production. Past targets per game is one of the best predictors of future targets per game, assuming similar team composition and health. A WR who averaged 9 targets per game last season in a stable offense is likely to average 8–10 again next year if nothing changes.
Targets create volume — the foundation of PPR production. In full PPR best ball, volume (targets, receptions) is as important as touchdowns. A WR with 9 targets per game catching 65% of them produces 5.85 receptions per game — worth 5.85 PPR points before yards and touchdowns.
Target volume creates ceiling weeks. High-target receivers have more opportunities for the big play to happen. When your 9-target WR has a good connection game, he is in 25+ point territory. When your 4-target WR has a connection game, his ceiling is much lower.
How to Use Target Data in Your Draft
Identify high-target leaders at ADP. Before your draft, run through the top 30–40 WRs by ADP and note their targets per game from the prior year. Players who averaged 8+ targets per game are your safest picks — they have proven volume regardless of what happens in any given week.
Fade low-target WRs even with high yards. A WR who averages 4 targets per game but converts them to big plays can have big weeks, but he is not reliable on a weekly basis. He is better as a lottery-ticket pick late in your draft rather than a core piece.
Buy target leaders in new roles. When a player with a history of high targets moves to a new team or inherits targets from a departed teammate, his ADP may not fully reflect his new volume. These are the best-value picks in best ball.
For how target data connects to overall receiver evaluation, see: Fantasy Football Target Share: What It Is and Why It Predicts Future Performance.