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Dynasty: How to Use Target Share Data to Evaluate WR and TE Value

Target share is the percentage of a team’s total pass targets directed at a specific receiver. A WR who sees 28 of a team’s 150 targets has an 18.7% target share. It’s a better predictor of sustained dynasty value than touchdowns or yards because it measures the offense’s commitment to a receiver — not scoring variance or scheme-dependent yardage.

Should I Buy This Receiver? Decision Tree

Step 1: What is their target share?

  • 25%+ → Elite usage. They’re the focal point of this offense. Strong buy if age and contract support it.
  • 18–24% → Solid WR1/WR2 usage. Evaluate by context (team pass volume, competition for targets, age).
  • 12–17% → WR2/WR3 range. Productive but dependent on the WR1 staying healthy. Only buy for the right price.
  • Under 12% → Needs something to change (injury above them, scheme shift) to become dynasty-relevant. Stash only.

Step 2: What is the team’s total pass volume?

Formula: Targets per game = Target share % × Team pass attempts per game

A 20% share on a 40-attempt team = 8 targets/game. The same 20% on a 30-attempt team = 6 targets/game. Both TDs are worth more on the high-volume team.

High-volume offense (35+ pass attempts/game): Target share is more valuable here. A 20% share produces more raw targets.

Low-volume offense (under 30 pass attempts/game): Require higher target share for equivalent production.

Step 3: Is this a concentrated or distributed offense?

  • Concentrated (1–2 receivers with 20%+ each): The WR1 is very valuable; WR2 is exposed. If you’re buying the WR1 here, strong value. If WR2 or lower, fragile.
  • Distributed (4–5 receivers sharing targets): WR1 has a lower ceiling share but WR2 is more protected from injury above.

Step 4: Is the target share stable or shifting?

Stable: Same share range for 2+ seasons, no roster additions threatening it. Hold or buy.

At risk of shift: New WR added via trade or draft pick, new TE emerged in route tree, new QB with different receiver preferences, scheme change. Sell before the market prices the shift.

Step 5: Buy, hold, or sell?

Situation Action
20%+ share, high-volume team, age under 28, stable Strong buy
18–24% share, solid team, ascending trajectory Buy at current market
12–17% share, WR1 recently injured (sudden share spike) Sell high — likely reverts
Under 12% share, no clear path to more Sell or let go
Any share level, target share shift incoming Sell before market adjusts

Target Share Benchmarks

Elite WR: 25%+ in a pass-heavy offense — the clear WR1 and focal point of the passing game.

Solid WR1/WR2: 18–24% — consistent starter with meaningful usage, key but not the primary option.

WR2/WR3: 12–17% — produces but is dependent on players above them staying healthy.

Depth/stash: Under 12% — needs a change in situation to be dynasty-relevant.

Elite TE: 20–30%+. The top TEs consolidate target share dramatically — elite TEs often exceed 25%.

Adding Air Yards for Target Quality

Target share counts all targets equally — a short screen pass counts the same as a deep route. Air yards adds quality to quantity.

Air yards: The distance the ball travels in the air toward the receiver.

A WR with 22% share and high air yards = volume + quality. They’re running deeper routes, generating explosive-play potential.

A WR with 22% share and low air yards = primarily a short-route player. Useful, but ceiling-limited.

For dynasty: Pair target share with air yards. A high-share, high-air-yards WR is a true dynasty cornerstone. A high-share, low-air-yards WR is more of a floor-based asset.

Where to Find Target Share Data

  • Pro Football Reference: Season-level target share in receiving tables
  • FantasyPros / RotoWire / PlayerProfiler: Updated target share with visualization
  • RBSDM.com / AirYards.com: Detailed target share + air yards metrics for current-season analysis

For applying target share to WR dynasty valuation, see: Dynasty: How to Value WRs in Dynasty Fantasy Football. For coaching changes that affect target shares, see: Dynasty: How NFL Coaching and Team Context Changes Affect Dynasty Value.