Best Ball ADP: How to Use Average Draft Position Data to Find Value in Best Ball Drafts
ADP (average draft position) is the single most important data source for best ball draft preparation. It tells you what other drafters think a player is worth — which lets you identify where the market is wrong, where you can get players at a discount, and where you should be paying up.
Best Ball ADP Quick Reference
| ADP situation | Meaning | Best ball action | Mistake to avoid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Player’s ADP is 3 rounds later than your ranking | Market undervalues him — you can take him at a discount | Draft him at his ADP or a round early; do not overpay by taking him 2+ rounds before ADP | Taking him 4 rounds early just because you “love him” — you paid full price for what should be a late-round value |
| Player’s ADP rising 2+ rounds over 2 weeks | Market is responding to new information (training camp buzz, injury to teammate) | Pay the current price or miss him — do not wait for ADP to come back down | Anchoring to his old price and refusing to pay his current ADP — the market has repriced; waiting means missing him entirely |
| Player’s ADP falling 2+ rounds over 2 weeks | Market is losing confidence — identify whether it is signal or overreaction | Research WHY ADP is falling before buying; if it is overreaction to a minor issue, it is a value; if it is real, it confirms the move | Treating every ADP decline as a buying opportunity — some players fall in ADP because the market found out something real |
| Redraft ADP vs. best ball ADP on the same platform | Different formats — ADP is not transferable | Use only best ball-specific ADP for best ball drafts | Importing your redraft ADP rankings into a best ball draft — the formats prioritize different player traits |
| Two players at similar ADP, one with injury history | The durable player is better value at the same price | Take the durable player; his ADP accounts for talent but discounts durability upside | Choosing the injury-prone player “for upside” at the same ADP — durability IS upside in best ball, where injured players have zero production |
| Late-breaking ADP shift (final 2 weeks before season) | Most reliable ADP signal — reflects current training camp and preseason information | Act on these moves; buy rising players; avoid players who fell for documented reasons | Ignoring late-breaking ADP shifts because you “did your research in June” — ADP in August reflects more information than ADP in May |
What ADP Is and Where to Find It
How ADP is calculated. ADP is the average pick position where a player has been selected across a large sample of drafts. If a WR has been selected at picks 12, 15, 11, 18, and 14 across 5 drafts, his ADP is 14.0. The sample is typically thousands of drafts, which makes the average meaningful.
Where to find best ball ADP. Best ball ADP is format-specific. The ADP from a 12-team redraft league is different from the ADP in a best ball draft with the same number of teams. Use ADP data from the same format and platform you are drafting on. Underdog, DRAFT, and similar platforms publish best ball-specific ADP for their player pools.
How to Use ADP in Best Ball Prep
Build your player tiers. Before any draft, organize players into tiers by position. Within each tier, rank players by expected production. Then compare your rankings to ADP — players you rank higher than their ADP are potential value picks; players you rank lower are overvalued.
Identify your draft targets. The players you want to acquire in each round are those where: your ranking is higher than their ADP (you get them later than the market expects); their production path has changed since ADP data was captured (injury recovery, new team, new scheme).
Know when to reach. Sometimes you should pay slightly more than ADP for a player. If a WR has an ADP of 3.05 but you need WR upside and the next WR on your board does not come off until pick 4.02, reaching for him at pick 3.10 is reasonable.
ADP Movement and What It Signals
Rising ADP. When a player’s ADP moves early (they are being drafted earlier than before), the market is responding to new information — training camp buzz, injury to a teammate, scheme changes. Rising ADP can mean you need to pay up now or miss the player.
Falling ADP. When a player’s ADP moves late (they are being drafted later than before), the market is getting less excited. This can signal a genuine value opportunity — or it can confirm a problem. Understand WHY ADP is falling before treating it as a buying opportunity.
Late-breaking ADP shifts. The most valuable ADP movements happen in the final weeks before the season when training camp and preseason information creates clarity. Monitor ADP changes from early August through draft week — these late movements reflect the most current information.
For how to incorporate ADP into your full best ball draft sequence, see: Draft Order Strategy in Best Ball: How to Adjust Your Approach Based on Your Pick Position.