Skip to main content

Best Ball Analyzing Pace of Play: How NFL Team Pace Affects Best Ball Production

Why pace of play is a structural production multiplier that casual best ball managers underweight: two WRs with identical 20% target shares on their respective teams produce different raw target totals if their teams run different numbers of plays; a team that runs 70 plays per game generates 14 targets for the 20% share WR; a team that runs 58 plays per game generates only 11.6 targets for the same share WR; the 2.4-target difference per game translates to 40 additional targets per season, which at a 70% catch rate creates 28 additional receptions, or 28 additional PPR points — more than a full game of production added to the season.

Analyzing Pace of Play in Best Ball

The pace measurement framework:

The metrics: (1) plays per game: the total offensive snaps a team runs per game; faster-paced teams average 68–72 plays per game; slower-paced teams average 58–62 plays per game; the difference of 10 plays per game is the volume multiplier across an entire offense; (2) seconds per play (time of possession adjusted): some teams snap the ball quickly between plays (hurry-up offense) while others use a full play clock; the seconds per play metric captures the speed of the offense’s execution rather than just the final play count; (3) pass play percentage at pace: pace matters more for the passing game than the running game; a fast-paced team that runs 72 plays at 45% pass rate throws 32 times per game; a slow-paced team that runs 58 plays at 55% pass rate also throws 32 times per game; the total passing volume may be equal even when pace differs if the faster team is more run-heavy; always combine pace with pass rate for the complete picture; (4) connect pace analysis to game script analysis — game script modifies the effective pace; a fast-paced team that goes up by 2 scores may slow down; a slow-paced team that trails by 2 scores may speed up; the season-average pace is the structural expectation, with game script as the weekly modifier.

The pace-volume interaction in best ball:

The interaction: (1) the pace multiplier for WRs: in a fast-paced offense (70 plays, 55% pass rate = 38.5 passes per game), a WR with 20% target share sees 7.7 targets per game (131 per season); in a slow-paced offense (58 plays, 55% pass rate = 31.9 passes per game), the same WR sees 6.4 targets per game (109 per season); the pace difference creates 22 additional targets annually — a meaningful volume advantage; (2) the pass rate interaction: a fast-paced run-first team (70 plays, 38% pass rate = 26.6 passes per game) provides fewer passing game opportunities than its high play count suggests; pace only benefits passing game players when combined with high pass rates; (3) TE production in fast-paced offenses: TEs who run full route trees in fast-paced offenses see more snaps and more routes per game; their absolute target count rises proportionally with play count; fast-paced offenses with a featured TE are among the best TE production environments in the league; (4) pair pace analysis with target share analysis — target share identifies the fraction of production; pace identifies the total production pool; both are necessary to estimate absolute target projection.

How to identify fast-paced offenses for best ball targeting:

The research: (1) check team plays per game from the prior season; track whether the team has retained or upgraded their OC (offensive coordinator drives pace philosophy); (2) the hurry-up tendency indicator: teams that regularly go no-huddle or hurry-up after first downs maintain high plays-per-game counts; this is a scheme-level commitment that persists year-to-year unless the OC changes; (3) connect pace analysis to ADP trend analysis — when a team transitions from slow-paced to fast-paced (new OC with a hurry-up philosophy), the players on that offense should see their ADP rise; identifying the transition before the ADP market adjusts is the pace-related best ball edge.

For how pace of play analysis connects to best ball strategy, see our game script guide and target share guide. Start at the best ball hub for all resources.